[1]张认认  闫怡飞  王鹏  闫行  闫相祯.基于贝叶斯网络的页岩气井套管变形失效定量风险分析[J].石油钻采工艺,2018,40(6):736-742.[doi:10.13639/j.odpt.2018.06.012]
 ZHANG Renren,YAN Yifei,et al.Quantitative risk analysis on the deformation failure of casing in shale gas wells based on Bayes network[J].Oil Drilling & Production Technology,2018,40(6):736-742.[doi:10.13639/j.odpt.2018.06.012]
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基于贝叶斯网络的页岩气井套管变形失效定量风险分析
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《石油钻采工艺》[ISSN:1000-7393/CN:13-1072/TE]

卷:
40卷
期数:
2018年6期
页码:
736-742
栏目:
钻井完井
出版日期:
2018-11-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Quantitative risk analysis on the deformation failure of casing in shale gas wells based on Bayes network
文章编号:
1000 – 7393( 2018 )06 – 0736– 07
作者:
张认认12  闫怡飞12  王鹏3  闫行2  闫相祯2
1. 中国石油大学(华东)机电工程学院; 2. 中国石油大学(华东)油气CAE 技术研究中心; 3. 石油管材及装备材料服役行为与结构安全国家重点实验室
Author(s):
ZHANG Renren1 2 YAN Yifei1 2 WANG Peng3 YAN Xing2 YAN Xiangzhen2
1. School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, Shandong, China; 2. Oil and Gas CAE Technology Research Center, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, Shandong, China; 3. State Key Laboratory of Performance and Structural Safety for Petroleum Pipe and Equipment Materials, Xi’an 710077, Shaanxi, China
关键词:
页岩气井套管变形失效贝叶斯网络诱因风险评估
Keywords:
shale gas well casing deformation failure Bayes network cause risk assessment
分类号:
TE931.2
DOI:
10.13639/j.odpt.2018.06.012
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
受环境载荷和自身缺陷的影响,页岩气井套管在服役过程中可能发生变形失效,对页岩气井的正常生产造成严重影响。为控制页岩气井套管变形失效风险,采用事故树和事件序列图方法识别页岩气井套管变形失效原因和后果,建立页岩气井套管变形失效场景模型,将事故树和事件序列模型转化为贝叶斯网络,采用条件概率表考虑事件之间的推理关系,建立页岩气井套管变形失效的贝叶斯网络模型。进行失效诊断分析和概率学习,识别页岩气井套管变形失效最可能的致因因素,引入先兆事故,评估各失效场景的动态发生概率。以川东地区A 页岩气井为例开展模型应用研究,获取导致套管变形失效最可能的致因组合,得到套管变形失效及其失效后果的动态发生概率,与工程现场气井套管的安全状况比较吻合,分析结果可为页岩气井套管变形失效风险防控和决策提供理论支撑。
Abstract:
Due to the effect of the environmental loads and the defects of its own, the casing in shale gas wells may suffer deformation failure in the process of service, which will bring serious impact on the normal production of shale gas wells. In order to control the risk induced by the deformation failure of the casing in shale gas wells, its causes and consequences were identified by means of event tree and event sequence diagram. Then, the scenario model for the deformation failure of the casing in shale gas wells was established, and event tree and event sequence models were transformed into the Bayes network. The inference relations between events were presented by using conditional probability table, and the Bayes network model for the deformation failure of the casing in shale gas wells was established. Failure diagnosis and analysis and probability learning were carried out, and the most possible cause for the deformation failure of the casing was identified. Threatened accident was introduced and the dynamic occurrence probability of each failure scenario was assessed. Finally, model application study was carried out with shale gas well A in the eastern Sichuan Basin as the example. And the most possible cause combination for the deformation failure of the casing was figured out, and the dynamic occurrence probability of casing deformation failure and its consequence was calculated. It is indicated that they are in better accordance with the safety situation of the casing in gas wells in the field of engineering. The research results can provide the theoretical support for the risk control and decision making on the deformation failure of casing in shale gas wells.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2019-04-10