刘重伯,段训城,李高峰,等. 数据驱动的电潜螺杆泵井运行健康状态表征及预测方法[J]. 石油钻采工艺,2026,48(4):488-498, 519. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202506033
引用本文: 刘重伯,段训城,李高峰,等. 数据驱动的电潜螺杆泵井运行健康状态表征及预测方法[J]. 石油钻采工艺,2026,48(4):488-498, 519. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202506033
LIU Zhongbo, DUAN Xuncheng, LI Gaofeng, et al. Data-driven computation model and prediction methods for the operational health status of electric submersible progressive cavity pump wells[J]. Oil Drilling & Production Technology, 2026, 48(4): 488-498, 519. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202506033
Citation: LIU Zhongbo, DUAN Xuncheng, LI Gaofeng, et al. Data-driven computation model and prediction methods for the operational health status of electric submersible progressive cavity pump wells[J]. Oil Drilling & Production Technology, 2026, 48(4): 488-498, 519. DOI: 10.13639/j.odpt.202506033

数据驱动的电潜螺杆泵井运行健康状态表征及预测方法

Data-driven computation model and prediction methods for the operational health status of electric submersible progressive cavity pump wells

  • 摘要: 电潜螺杆泵健康状态的监测和预警是油气生产管理的重要问题。电潜螺杆泵结构与地面驱动螺杆泵不同,故障类型也不同。因此,进行潜油螺杆泵的故障诊断,对于提升潜油螺杆泵运行时效、减少螺杆泵因故障导致的损坏和停产具有重要意义。提出一种基于实时监测数据的电潜螺杆泵井健康指数计算模型及预测方法:采用主成分分析(Principal Component Analysis, PCA)确定电潜螺杆泵井健康监测参数的权重;通过理想状态对比法构建健康度计算模型;利用基于密度的空间聚类算法(Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise, DBSCAN)完成健康程度的划分;并在 PCA 权重基础上,引入长短时记忆神经网络(Long Short-Term Memory, LSTM)对健康指数进行预测,同时与其他模型的预测效果展开对比分析。依据华北油田油井运行数据计算得到其对应健康指数,经现场工况验证,能够准确反映设备故障。将设备状态按照0.7~1、0.4~0.7、<0.4划分为健康、亚健康、故障,以实现故障预警及报警。PCA-LSTM模型对多口井的健康状态进行预测,其训练速度和预测效果优于常规LSTM模型及随机森林模型。现场应用表明,构建健康指数模型在反映设备实际健康状态方面有良好的表征精度,能够有效指导电潜螺杆泵井综合运行健康状态的定量评价、故障预警、运维管理。

     

    Abstract: The monitoring and early warning of the health status of electric submersible screw pump is crucial in oil and gas production management. The structure of the electric submersible screw pump is different from that of the ground-driven screw pump, leading to different fault types. Thus, the fault diagnosis of electric submersible screw pump is of great significance for improving the operation efficiency of the submersible screw pump and minimizing the damage and production shutdown caused by failure. In this paper, a computation model and prediction method for the health index of electric submersible screw pump wells based on real-time data monitoring are proposed. Specifically, principal component analysis is used to determine the weight of health monitoring parameters of electric submersible screw pump wells. The health degree calculation model is constructed by the ideal state comparison method. The Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise(DBSCAN) algorithm is employed to classify the health degree. On the basis of PCA weight, Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM) neural network is introduced to predict the health index, and the prediction effect of other models is comparatively analyzed. Based on the operation data from oil wells in Huabei Oilfield, the corresponding health index is calculated, which can accurately reflect the equipment failures after verification through field conditions. The equipment status is categorized into healthy, sub-healthy, and fault in terms of 0.7-1, 0.4-0.7, and less than 0.4 to achieve fault warning and alarm. The PCA-LSTM model predicts the health status of multiple wells, presenting superior training speed and prediction effect compared to conventional LSTM and random forest models. The research and field application show that the construction of the health index model exhibits sound characterization accuracy in reflecting the actual health state of equipment, and can effectively guide the quantitative evaluation, fault early warning, operation and maintenance management of the comprehensive operational health state of electric submersible screw pump wells.

     

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